Renewable Gossip

Production of low-emission electric drive vehicles is no longer an interesting sideline for global automakers. It’s becoming the big show. Industry analysts—as well as consumers considering their next purchase—are now wondering which technology holds the most promise: Hybrids or Electric Cars?

The 2010 Toyota Prius gas-electric hybrid car topped the list of Japan’s best-selling vehicles in November, for the sixth straight month

“Hybrids are the only vehicles that can address both fuel efficiency and cost issues while maintaining driving performance,” Toyota President Akio Toyoda said at this year’s Tokyo Motor Show. Nissan’s reply is that only all-electric cars, like the Nissan Leaf expected next year, gives you zero emissions at the tailpipe. Meanwhile, General Motors, Toyota and others have plug-in hybrids in the works, which operate (to varying degrees) like an electric car, but rely much more heavily on electric motors and rechargeable batteries.

As reported on MarketWatch today, Tokyo-based Macquarie Securities recently raised its 2020 global market-share estimate of all alternative vehicles to 12.0 percent of total drivetrains, from 10.6 percent in its previous estimate. Hybrid electric vehicles account for 7.1 percent of the total, up from 5.6 percent previously.

“We assume, then, that pure EVs will account for just under 2 percent of total volumes in 2020,” said Macquarie analyst Clive Wiggins in a report. “Our assumption that sales of hybrid electric vehicles will outpace those of pure EVs is more favorable for Toyota and Honda than Nissan,” he said.

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