Renewable Gossip

In the auto industry’s struggle to re-invent itself as innovative, high-tech, and environmentally friendly, car companies have fixed on the idea of plug-in hybrids and electric cars as a solution. What hasn’t been worked out is the fundamental question of how and where a million plug-in vehicles—that’s President Obama’s goal for 2015—will find juice for their cars.

Pike Research, a renewable energy research and consulting firm, recently published the results of its inquiry into that question. Based on numerous interviews with industry insiders, as well as analysis of planned plug-in car production, the Pike study, “Electric Vehicles on the Grid,” projects rapid growth in car charging infrastructure—but not in ways that many consumers expect. John Gartner, industry analyst at Pike Research, said, “Automakers made the commitment and there’s no going back. They can’t let this fail. But it’s not going to be perfect.”

Pike identified a number of myths about how electric car charging will unfold by 2015. “That sounds like it’s in far in the future, but we’re really not getting started with vehicle production until 2011,” said Gartner, in an interview with HybridCars.com. “We’re talking within four years. That’s a big ramp up.”

The Myths Dispelled

1 Public car charging stations will not be ubiquitous in the urban landscape.

Pike forecasts 1 million car charging installations by 2015—but most of them will be private. Early buyers of electric cars—which will be expensive—will be affluent and will see public charging as less convenient than pulling into the garage or driveway for a fill-up. “A high percentage of early adopters are likely to have home residential access to charging,” said Gartner. “They will probably pay for the installation themselves just for the convenience of home charging.”

2Public recharging infrastructure will not be critical to the early success of plug-in cars.

Yes, pure electric cars have a critical dependency on public recharging to travel beyond their expected range of 100 miles. But Pike forecasts just 3,000 annual sales of electric cars by 2015 compared to 204,000 plug-in hybrids and 435,000 conventional hybrids. Plug-in hybrids combine electric and gas power to provide a driving range that matches or exceeds conventional vehicles. “Plug-in hybrids get you there,” said Gartner. “Eighty percent of the problem solved. You have the gasoline engine as your backup.”

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